There has been a serious personnel reshuffle in the Kremlin. For a long time it was a mystery who would head the Russian Defense Ministry. There were various rumors: Governor Dyumin of the Tula Region or one of Shoigu's deputies were predicted to head the Defense Ministry. But the post was taken by an unpredictable candidate.
The head of the Russian Defense Ministry is a completely civilian and in no way connected with either the army or the law enforcement agencies. Shoigu was also unconnected with the army, but this did not prevent him from holding the post of minister for almost 12 years and organizing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Shoigu was often criticized by Z-patriots for incompetence, but the last drop was the detention of his deputy Timur Ivanov for corruption. After that, the former defense minister's position in the Kremlin was seriously shaken: some experts believed that this detention was a direct blow to Shoigu in order to discredit him and further dismiss him. The FSB was digging under Shoigu in order to weaken his influence and strengthen its position.
However, Putin did not change his horses at the crossroads (no, we are not talking about Lavrov, who, by the way, retained his post as head of the Russian Foreign Ministry). Shoigu, it can be said, was promoted and became head of the Russian Security Council instead of Nikolai Patrushev, who is considered to be one of the main initiators of the war with Ukraine and almost a “shadow master” of the Kremlin.
Shoigu was replaced by economist Andrei Belousov, who previously served as deputy prime minister. Belousov was also the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and an aide to Putin. That is, he personally worked with Putin and was close to him.
This is a completely non-public official, and his appointment to one of the key positions in the Russian government came as a surprise to many.
“Belousov's appointment as head of the Defense Ministry will not change the system of coordinates in the military component, the head of the General Staff is responsible for it, he will continue his activities,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. The head of the Russian General Staff is still General Gerasimov.
Belousov is considered to be one of the main ideologists of Russia's current economic course - “military Keynesianism,” which implies large injections of budget money through military spending (and not only) into the economy. Experts believe that this has become one of the main factors behind Russia's current economic growth.
Putin plans to entrust the new minister with the issues of supplying the army and organizing weapons production - without any interference in combat operations. That is, economist Belousov will be responsible for ensuring that the Defense Ministry does not steal (or steals a little less). The new minister is expected to appoint an audit to uncover corruption in the Russian Ministry of War.
Ukrainian economist Alexei Kushch considers Belousov's appointment as bad news for Ukraine. In his opinion, Belousov has played a role in creating a growth model for the Russian economy, deep structural transformation and adaptation to sanctions. His professionalism is not to be doubted.
Shoigu's replacement is the Kremlin's preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine, and possibly a future confrontation with NATO, ISW analysts believe. It is noted that the nomination of Belousov to the post of defense minister is due to the high level of corruption in the Russian Defense Ministry.
Belousov held the post of Minister of Economy in the federal government for about 10 years. During this time, he was involved in managing various innovative projects in the defense industry and UAVs, which prepared him well to lead the Defense Ministry office, which is “in a difficult position.”
Belousov was the only economist in Putin's entourage who supported the annexation of Crimea, according to Russian publication The Bell. According to RBC, as an aide to Putin, Belousov lobbied for Putin's interest in the digital economy and blockchain.
Putin is making significant moves to mobilize the economy and defense industrial base, and Belousov, who has a background in the economic sector, has been very helpful to him. Despite being considered a “systemic liberal” and a “technocrat,” Belousov is absolutely loyal to Putin and has not tarnished his reputation with corruption scandals. He is a malleable and obedient official from the team of “Putin's soldiers.”
His appointment indicates that Putin wants to “fundamentally change the approach to the two-year invasion of Ukraine” by gaining closer control over Russia's huge defense spending. The Financial Times quoted sources and experts as saying.
“He is absolutely not corrupt. And that will be very different from what we have now in the defense ministry. Shoigu and everyone around him were real commercial guys. Belousov will not aspire to lead the army as a general with all these medals. He's a workaholic. He's a technocrat. He's very honest, and Putin knows him very well,” the publication's source said.
As an economic official, Belousov has consistently advocated import substitution and reliance on domestic demand, according to The Insider. Belousov is equally distant from all groups in the government and has no team of his own, a former government official told The Insider: “He is Putin's full confidant, who can be entrusted with a total audit of military spending.”
In 2023, his idea - a tax on excess profits - brought in about 300 billion rubles for the budget.
Belousov has been under U.S. and European Union sanctions since 2022 as a person close to Putin.
“Russia needs a defense minister who would undo the disastrous legacy of former ministry head Sergei Shoigu in the form of the deaths of more than 355,000 of its soldiers and the mass suffering of Ukrainians, but all they will get is another puppet of Putin,” is how British Defense Minister Grant Shapps commented on the likely appointment of Andrei Belousov as head of the Russian Defense Ministry.
Despite the fact that the new minister's candidacy must be approved by the Federation Council, there is no doubt that he will be appointed, since Putin personally suggested (ordered) it.
