The Guardian published a public opinion poll from 12 EU countries conducted by sociological institutes YouGov and Datapraxis. It revealed a deeply divided public opinion regarding Ukraine's prospects of winning the war.
Only 10% of respondents from these countries believe in Ukraine's victory over Russia, while twice as many believe in a Russian victory. The most optimistic sentiment are found among the citizens of Poland, Portugal, and Sweden, but even there, only one in five respondents believes in Ukraine's success in the war. The majority lean towards a compromise agreement between Ukraine and Russia — a total of 37% of survey participants supported this option. The researchers clarify that Ukraine's victory likely refers to the complete liberation of territories seized by the occupiers.
Survey participants note that their opinion was greatly influenced by the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive. Most Europeans «are desperate to prevent a Russian victory» but do not believe Kyiv can win militarily, said co-author Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), which commissioned the polling, meaning that the most convincing argument for an increasingly sceptical public was that continuing aid «could lead to a sustainable, negotiated peace that favours Kyiv – rather than a victory for Putin».
«In order to make the case for continued European support for Ukraine, EU leaders will need to change how they talk about the war,» Leonard said.
Another major factor undermining Europeans' faith in a Ukrainian victory is the likelihood that Donald Trump could win the upcoming US presidential election. For 56% of respondents, this event would be bad news — they noted they would be very or quite disappointed. Hungary was the exception — there, 28% of those surveyed would be pleased with Trump's victory.
Ivan Krastev, another co-author of the report, told The Guardian that the greatest danger lies in the fact that both Donald Trump and Putin «try to portray Ukraine and its backers as the ‘forever war’ party, while they claim the mantle of ‘peace,’»
European public opinion on whether the European Union should support Ukraine in its fight to regain control over the occupied territories is also deeply divided. 31% of respondents are in favor of continuing assistance, but 41% of participants would like the EU to push Ukraine towards negotiations with Putin.
It's worth noting that the highest level of support for Ukraine was found in Poland, Sweden, and Portugal. There, every second respondent spoke in favor of providing assistance to the country. In Hungary (64%), Greece (59%), Italy (52%), and Austria (49%), the vote was for negotiations. In France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, opinions were more evenly divided.
