Bild analyst Julian Röpke notes that the frequent strikes against Russian air defenses are part of Ukraine's new strategy, which is counting on the arrival of the F-16s in the fall or winter. Destroying Russian air defense systems is now more important to Kyiv than holding small villages in Donbas. If Ukraine gains air superiority, it can liberate these territories.
Ukraine is preparing to use its Su-24s with British and French cruise missiles as well as F-16s. This involves sabotage operations as well as precision weapons to destroy Russian radars and air defense systems.
However, the new AFU strategy has weaknesses: first, Russia has hundreds of air defense systems, and so far Ukraine has managed to destroy at most a third of them. Second, the final timing and plan for putting the F-16s into combat has not yet been determined. This means that Russian air defenses are still a serious threat, and the success of the new strategy in the short term is questionable.
According to recent reports, the first F-16s will arrive in Ukraine in July 2024, but there will be only a few of them - about 6 aircraft out of about 45 promised by European allies. By that time, 12 Ukrainian pilots are expected to be ready to fly F-16s after training at a Romanian training center.
The training process for Ukrainian pilots has been slowed by deficiencies in language skills and knowledge of Western piloting techniques.
In total, Ukraine expects to receive about 200 F-16 fighters, but the exact timing and number of deliveries are still unknown. The next group of 8 pilots is expected to arrive for training in Denmark in late summer. However, the process of training and deployment of F-16s in Ukraine may take years.
